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MLB Baseball – Tue 10/11

Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
Selection: Detroit Tigers -136
C Lewis & D Fister Must Start
Double Dime

Analysis: My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Det Tigers at 8:05 ET.

The Rangers won 14 of 16 games to end the regular season and the team needed each and every one of those victories, as Texas finished with 96 wins, one more than Detroit’s 95. That one-game edge gave Texas the No. 2 seed in the AL (faced the Rays at home, rather than the Yanks on the road in the ALDS) and now the home field advantage in the ALCS vs the Tigers. The Rangers bested Justin Verlander and the rain delays in Game 1 (3-2) and then Nelson Cruz, four innings after he had tied Game 2 with a solo HR, hit the first walk-off grand slam in postseason history in the 11th to give Texas a 7-3 victory. Because of Sunday’s rain out, the teams will have no travel day and Game 3 is set for tonight in Detroit. The Rangers have the 2-0 lead in the series and will send Colby Lewis to the mound. Lewis has quite a story to tell. He was the 38th overall player selected in the 1999 Major League Baseball Draft. He was a highly regarded prospect coming up in the Rangers’ system and in three seasons with them had a career ERA of 6.83. Of particular note was his 2003 season, where he managed to post a winning record of 10-9 in 26 starts despite a 7.30 ERA. From 2004-07 he bounced from Detroit, to Washington, to Oakland and Kansas City, accomplishing little. He then went to Japan for the 2008 and ’09 seasons and his surprising success got him another shot with the Rangers. He opened last season 3-0 with a 2.76 ERA in five April starts (team was 4-1), striking out 38 in 32.2 innings. However, he would finish just 12-13 with a 3.72 ERA in 32 starts. The team was 14-18 in those starts, leaving him with an awful minus-$951 moneyline mark (only four pitchers were minus-$1,000 or worse in 2010). A funny thing then happened. Lewis became a star in the postseason, going 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA in four starts (team was 3-1). He’s been hard to figure this year, going 14-10 but with a 4.40 ERA in 32 starts (team was 17-15). Some expected him to just “re-find” his postseason ‘magic’ this year and I was skeptical. However, he “was at it again” at Tampa in Game 3 of the ALDS, going six innings with six Ks and just one hit allowed (a solo HR). The Rangers would win that game 4-3 (Lewis is now 4-0 with a 1.67 ERA in five postseason starts) and capture the series with another 4-3 win in Game 4. The fact is, the Rangers lost Game 1 to the Rays but have since won FIVE straight postseason games. Add that to the team’s 14-2 finish to the regular season and one could say, the Rangers are “in the zone.” However, let’s not be too quick to dismiss the Tigers, who won 20 of their final 25 regular season games and then beat the Yankees in a deciding Game 5 at Yankee Stadium in the ALDS. Doug Fister was the starter in that game, going five innings and allowing one ER. That was quite an improvement on his first postseason effort, when he allowed seven hits and six ERs in 4.2 innings of the completed Game 1 of that series (the one suspended in the 2nd inning which had begun with Verlander and CC). Most know what Fister has done for the Tigers this year but I’ll repeat it for those who don’t. He was acquired from Seattle at the trade deadline and while he may have been 3-12 with Seattle, the Tigers looked ‘deeper.’ He owned a 3.33 ERA plus suffered from having the poorest run support of any AL pitcher (1.97 RPG) at the time of the trade. Detroit “saw that something” and was right. Fister would make 11 regular season appearances for the Tigers (10 starts), going 8-1 with a 1.79 in those starts, as the team went 8-2. The team lost two of his first three starts with his third outing, an 8-5 loss at Baltimore, being BRUTAL (5.2 IP / 12 hits / 8 runs, 6 earned). However, he would go 6-0 (team was 7-0) over his last seven starts, allowing only four ERs in 52.2 innings (0.68 ERA). Let me also note that he made five home starts while with the Tigers, going 4-0 (team was 5-0), posting an 0.98 ERA with a 27-3 KW ratio. The Tigers left 13 runners on base in Game 2 and are 2-for-19 with RISP in the series. If those numbers don’t improve, Detroit is ‘dead.’ Here’s betting they DO NOT. I’m backing Fister.

Good luck…John

Pick Made: Oct 11 2011 5:36AM PST

PHI Phillies @ ATL Braves
Selection: ATL Braves PK -164 / 1.60
J Blanton & J Jurrjens Must Start

Last time out, Jurrjens outpitched C Hamels and limited the Phillies to 1 ERA through 6.5 innings. The Braves won 5-2 on the road. Jurrjens’ last 5 starts against Phillies have only allowed 8 ERA in 33.5 innings. Note Jurrjens pitches much better in home than on road.

While the bullpen didn’t get it done last night, the Braves’ relievers have been very solid this season. Indeed, they entered last night’s game with a combined 2.86 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.
Even with Heyward expected to miss another game, the Braves also still have arguably the better offense. Except McLouth and Uggla, the rest line up hit Blanton > 0.286.

Braves should win this game.

John

Free Pick:
NY Mets  @ HOU Astros
Selection: Total OVER 7.5
R Dickey & J Happ Must Start

John