MLB Baseball – Wed 10/12
Milwaukee Brewers @ St Louis Cardinals
Pick: St Louis Cardinals PK @ -148
Y. Gallardo & C. Carpenter Must Start
Analysis: Play on St. Louis at 8:05 ET. In the playoffs, you have to ride the hot arm and no one looked better than Chris Carpenter did in Game 5 of the NLDS vs. Philadelphia, shutting the Phillies out over nine innings while allowing only three hits. That was Carpenter’s 2nd complete game shutout his L3 starts and third in his L7 seven starts overall. Note that he also went eight innings against the Phillies on 9.18 and allowed no runs. While Carpenter is ‘in the red’ overall here at home this season, note that he has a perfect 9-0 TSR at Busch when the money line is -100 to -150. He has pitched against Milwaukee four times this season, going 0-2 on the road and 2-0 at home. That is pretty much ‘par for the course’ for the Brewers overall performance this season. While they have the best home record in MLB, they have lost money overall on the road (-$710) going 39-44 w/ a pair of losses in Arizona in the LDS. Note that one of Carpenter’s three complete game shutouts over his last seven starts came here against the Brewers on 9.7. He allowed only four hits. Milwaukee’s confidence may be shaken with such a bad loss in Game 2 – at home no less. Note that the Brew Crew is 1-9 the last three seasons when playing w/ revenge for a home loss by 8 runs or more. They are 6-17 since the start of last season revenging a loss where the opponent scored 10 or more runs. Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo has looked sharp in recent starts, but he has consistently struggled against the Cards w/ a 2-9 career TSR, including three straight losses this season. He’s allowed 15 runs total in just under 16 IP and w/ the St. Louis offense hot, particularly Albert Pujols, we look for more of the same Wednesday. St. Louis is our MLB Oddsmaker Mismatch.
Pick Cardinals.
Made: Oct 12 2011 6:28AM PST
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