2011 Super Bowl Predictions

After a very long, often brilliant season we finally have our Super Bowl matchup set. After everything that has happened, it’s interesting to note that this is one of the more predictable finals we have seen in a while. The last five years we have seen at least one Super Bowl team that could be called a surprise. This year, though, both teams came into the season as elite contenders, and Pittsburgh would have been given even more credit if Big Ben hadn’t been forced to take the first four weeks off.

The Packers were at +1300 in the futures market at the end of the preseason, and the Steelers were at +2500. Both would have been nice bets at the time. It’s interesting to look back and see the NFL ODDS for futures from back then that wouldn’t have been nearly as nice, like Minnesota at +1300, and Dallas as the second favorites at +1025.

Price – Looking back is fun, but now is the time for looking forward. Who is going to hoist the ugliest championship trophy in sports? It’s time for our Super Bowl predictions.  It’s very early — we still have almost two weeks before the game is played, so anything could happen — but at this point I have a strong feeling. I like the Steelers. In fact, as much as I respect the Packers, I like the Steelers a lot. Here are five good reasons:

How often do you get to bet on a team that has won two of the last five championships and is reasonably healthy and very hungry and still get better than even money on the moneyline? Not very darned often. I would have to think pretty hard about the Steelers in this one at -3.5, which is the comfortable price I had set in my mind, so I really have to like them where they are at.

Experience – I give the Steelers a lot of credit for being where they are at for the third time in six years. They have gone through changes like any team, but the core of the team has been consistent through their championship runs. This is a team that knows how to win, and knows how to deal with being at the center of the storm like teams in the Super Bowl are. We know for sure that none of it will bother them.

On the other hand, we can’t be sure of how the Packers will handle it. They are a young team, and will mostly be facing this for the first time. They also live outside a major media market so aren’t quite as used to intense scrutiny as they could be. I’m not suggesting that the impact of the scrutiny is a deciding factor, but it will be a factor. When two teams are well matched any factor like this is significant.

Run defense - Simply put, I don’t trust that the Packers will be able to run the ball. They haven’t had a consistent run game all year, and though James Starks has been a very good story in these playoffs his productivity isn’t as strong as the hype would suggest, and he certainly hasn’t run against a run stopping defense like this one.

If the Pack can’t run then they are going to have to be fairly one-dimensional, and though they have a better QB than most when it comes to dealing with that it’s far from ideal — especially against a pretty talented secondary. On the flip side, I expect Pittsburgh to be able to play their game in a more comfortable manner.

Rodgers hype – I really respect Aaron Rodgers, and I think he is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. The hype around him has got out of control recently, though. He has largely been very impressive, and he is the biggest reason why his team is where it is.

Still, he is far from flawless. He made a couple of really bad decisions against the Bears, and didn’t always come through when he needed to. I’m not saying that he is going to lose the game for his team, but I think that a lot of the reason for the price for the Packers (laying points) is because of how Rodgers is playing and how much hype he is getting. If the hype is out of proportion then the price is higher than it should be as a result, and there is value in the Steelers.

Ultimately, it comes down to this — if there is two minutes on the clock and one team needs to score to win I’d rather bet on Ben Roethlisberger than Aaron Rodgers — and it’s a bonus that I get the better price to do so.

The path – I give the Steelers more credit than the Packers for how they got here. First, having to play one fewer games could be a major factor in terms of physical and mental health. They will also be more rested because they played two at home whereas the Packers played three on the road. Finally, though the Packers have looked good in each game I can’t help but feel like they haven’t traveled the hardest path to get here — Philadelphia had issues, I haven’t believed in Atlanta all year and they certainly didn’t seem ready to play, and the Bears were such a mess at quarterback that it wasn’t a contest.

I don’t really feel like the Packers have been truly tested, so I can’t be sure that they are up to what will be a major step in up class in this game. The comeback against the Ravens alone is enough to show me that the Steelers are up to it.