NFL PREDICTIONS – CONFERENCE – GB PACKERS @ CHI BEARS

Sun, 01/23/11 – 3:00 PM

PICK GB PACKERS – 3

We’ve successfully backed the Pack on the money line each of the last two playoff weekends and successfully backed the Bears last weekend, as well.  But no matter how compelling the 3.5 is in taking Chicago at home, Green Bay is simply playing too solidly right now to do anything but ride that gravy train once again.

As I mentioned on Friday’s MegaPod, the Bears will play a Tampa Two D and will key on the run.  In other words, the Monsters of the Midway will try to force Aaron Rodgers and company to matriculate the ball down the field while stifling the run and not giving up big plays.  In an outdoor stadium on a shoddy field, the Packers task is certainly made more difficult than it would be on an indoor fast track.  But, Rodgers, at this very moment is the best quarterback in the NFL, able to escape pass rushes with his mobility and hit receivers with a rifle arm and pinpoint accuracy.  He is not someone I’m willing to fade. Here are a couple of stats: on plays in which a rusher had a free shot at Rodgers last weekend, the Packers QB maneuvered out of harm’s way and completed 13 of 15 passes.  Unbelievable.  In the red zone in these playoffs, he’s 12-for-12 for 102 yards with 6 TDs.

The conundrum for the Bears is this: blitzing Rodgers is pure death, as just outlined, especially considering that when the Bears blitzed the Pack this season with 5 men, they gave up an average of 9.6 yds/attempt at a 69% completion rate.  But if the Bears let Rodgers operate at will, it’s a strategy that hopes for mistakes over long drives rather than taking the game into one’s own hands.

Flip side, the Bears will try to establish the run to mitigate against the Packers myriad of blitzes.  One glaring discrepancy in this game is how bad the Bears are as contrasted with the Packers, when they get inside the red zone.  Chicago had the 28th ranked offense in football when inside the opponents’ 20 while the Pack, buoyed by a superstar-studded defense led by Clay Matthews III and Charles Woodson, boast the 2nd best red zone D in the league.

Those are a lot of numbers to back up a simple point.  The Packers had no business losing to the Bears the first time these two teams met at Soldier Field and held the Bears to 3 points the last time they played.  In that first game, the Pack was flagged an obscene 18 times, gave up a Devin Hester punt return TD, possessed the ball for 35+ minutes, not to mention that Rodgers threw for over 300 yards.  It took all of that for the Bears to win by a FG.  The same officiating crew that worked the flagfest back in Week 3 will be working this game.  I believe, if anything, they’ll overcompensate to make sure the Packers get the benefit of every doubt in this game.

In short, we’re backing the Pack yet again, this time as a -3.5 point favorite on the road, to get to the Super Bowl and cover in the process.

Frank
Pick Made: Jan 22 2011 9:49PM PST

RESULT: GB PACKERS 21:14 CIN BEARS